Failing states in Central America

By Simon Whistler

When the US Defence Department produced a report in December in which it named Mexico as one of two countries (along with Pakistan) at risk of rapidly becoming a failed state there was a predictable rejection of its findings in many quarters. In fact, the authors may have got their analysis right, just for the wrong country. Head further south to Central America - Guatemala in particular - and the failed state paradigm may be far more applicable.

Considering the apparent progress made by democracy in the region since the 1990s, this assessment may seem a little harsh. But dig a little closer to look at the quality of democracy, above all in the condition of state institutions such as the judiciary and the police, and the picture becomes less rosy. Ironically, it is Mexico’s hardline strategy against the drug cartels on its own territory which is making the situation worse; gangs are seeking the relative sanctuary of Central America as a base for their operations.

The evidence from Guatemala is particularly worrying. Some 80 per cent of Latin American cocaine reaching the US passes through the country at some point. President Álvaro Colom in February claimed that 40 per cent of the 6,200 murders recorded in 2008 were linked to drug-related violence. Investigators from the US and Guatemala believe that the two biggest Mexican cartels, the Sinaloa and Gulf gangs, are spreading their tentacles across various departments; the Gulf cartel’s notorious armed wing, Los Zetas, is held responsible for a spate of massacres in the country in the past year. Many economists believe that a major reason for the quetzal’s strength against the dollar in recent years has been the amount of drug money laundered through the Guatemalan financial system.

Compared with the strong-arm tactics employed by his Mexican counterpart Felipe Calderón, Colom seems resigned to defeat. Comments in January that the country was helpless against an “avalanche” of drug-trafficking from the north were aimed at securing international support, but do little to inspire confidence in his leadership.

The sad truth is that he may well be right: the national police (PNC) are notoriously corrupt, understaffed and inefficient, as much a part of the problem as the drug gangs themselves. Moreover, the armed forces have become a shadow of their former self, and still have human rights legacies hanging over them from the country’s bitter civil war. Even if the PNC were to convert itself overnight into the world’s most effective crime-fighting machine, it would still be unlikely to have a significant immediate impact. Without an overhaul of the entire judicial system, any government measures or societal pressure are not going to make much of a difference.

This is true as much as for the rest of Central America - with the general exception of Costa Rica and Panama - as it is for Guatemala alone. Evidence from El Salvador would appear to bear this point out: the Salvadoran police are widely regarded as stronger and more efficient, but crime rates remain roughly on a par with Guatemala. In both countries, impunity is the key: in Guatemala only 4 per cent (at most) of all crimes, and less than 2 per cent of murders, result in a criminal conviction.

The condition of the Central American judiciary is at the heart of the prospect of state failure. Already weak and inefficient, prone to corruption, politicisation, lack of coordination between departments, and outright intimidation of its officials, judicial systems across the isthmus have been an easy target for organised crime. Guatemala has been the most obvious victim so far, but Honduras also suffers all the similar conditions to be the next in line.

Bringing the judicial system and other key state institutions to their knees is the main aim of the drug cartels. Being in virtual control of large swathes of Central American territory and being able to act with relative impunity are ultimately very good for business. The US may view its war on drugs in Mexico and Colombia as partially successful; the danger is that Central America does not have those countries’ institutional resilience, leaving the way open for new fronts to be opened. Quite aside from the terrible human and institutional impact, this situation also undermines the long-term economic strategies of Central American governments. For better or for worse, democracy in the region has been accompanied by policies of economic liberalisation and efforts to attract foreign investment, culminating in the signing of the Central American Free Trade Agreement with the US in 2005.

While foreign companies have not been deliberately targeted, regular headlines of new killings hardly present a positive international image. On-the-surface political stability and favourable investment laws may be in place, but in the absence of an effective judiciary or reliable security forces, committing capital to promising projects becomes that much more difficult.

Significant improvements to this situation will be hard won. Central American politicians’ habitual tough talk on violent crime has paid few dividends in practice; it makes little impact on drug cartels, whose resources often far outweigh those of the local police or army. Attention will inevitably be focused on the US to provide more material and technical support to the security forces; drips of funding for Central America under the term of the Mérida Initiative agreed with Mexico are welcome, but likely to be insufficient in the grand scheme of things.

Meanwhile, the economic downturn is doing its bit to help the gangs’ cause: jobs will dry up, poverty will increase and the government’s ability to provide basic welfare and social services will be tested, making a life of crime all the more attractive and rewarding. The possible implications of this Catch-22 are troubling to say the least.

Kidnapping in Mexico

Kidnapping in Mexico

The bad news is that kidnappings in Mexico are on the rise. Both Mexicans and foreigners are victims, because in Mexico there are 3 common types of kidnappings. Unfortunately, children are the most targeted group. Second, tourists and middle- or upper-class Mexicans are at risk for "Kidnapping Express," and lastly wealthy Mexican businessmen are also snatched and held for large ransoms.
Kidnapping Children

Children of middle-class or upper-class Mexicans, yet the problem does span all socio-economic levels, are too often stolen away from their families and homes. Kidnappers can work in sophisticated groups, following family members to learn routines or working with the help of hired domestic employees. This is why it is important to carefully screen all residential employees and to avoid flashy displays of wealth in public places.
The Kidnap Express

Kidnapping express is a rapidly growing crime. People are at most risk for this trap when hailing a taxi cab from the street. Once you are inside one of these unauthorized or "pirate" taxi cabs, anything can happen, because no one knows where you are or is held accountable for your whereabouts.

The most likely outcome of the kidnapping express is your credit card or banking account will be emptied. What criminals are most after are your credit cards, cash, jewelry, cellular phones and valuables, in that order. Once they empty your accounts and physically remove your possessions, they will normally release you. One increasingly disturbing spin is that the criminals may contact your family and not release you until a hefty ransom is paid.

Avoid this situation all together by using the authorized taxis lined up at taxi stands throughout the city. Best yet, request a secure taxi over the phone. This way your whereabouts are known by the taxi company. Also, if taking a taxi at night, call a friend to inform them of your whereabouts; also report to your friend the number of the taxi painted on the doors.
Kidnapping for Ransom

Kidnapping for ransom of people believed to be financially affluent (not that many foreigners are targeted) is on the rise. For the most part in Mexico City these gangs are professional and very well-organized. Lately, however, common criminals are also getting into this activity on a large scale.

Kidnapping of the rich and wealthy is a fast-growing crime. It is becoming much more common now in the states of Guerrero and Veracruz, and remains a problem in Mexico City as well. Behind these kidnappings are well-organized criminal gangs. In some cases the culprits are Mexican or international radical groups that obtain obscene amounts of money, in dollars or euros, from this activity.

The wealthy Mexican worried about his protection is normally escorted by private security guards and plans his moves carefully. However, the kidnapping problem is perpetuated because drivers, guards and security personnel are very poorly paid in Mexico. The lack of a living wage for these employees only makes the temptation to be lured in as an accomplish all the more irresistible.

In case of a kidnapping, these are useful numbers:

Mexico City Police (PGJDF): 5346-8669, 5345-5505
Federal Preventative Police (PFP): 5481-4300, 01800-440-3690

All calls are traced. It is against the law to report false alarms.
A Tragic History

Due to a lack of quality police investigations or a trusted police presence, the number of kidnappings taking place in Mexico is showing no sign of decreasing. On the contrary, kidnappings are more frequently ending in tragic circumstances. In one instance a kidnapped girl was murdered, even after her father paid the negotiated ransom. The father alone engaged in a private investigation that led to the arrest of the criminals, as police officials only demonstrated ineptness in this specific case. In another case two kidnapped brothers were also murdered after ransom demands had been met. Private security negotiators collected their fees, despite the horrific circumstances. This case has outraged many people in Mexico.
Drugs and the Increase in Violence

Drugs destined for the United States are no longer making it across the border as successfully as in the past, especially after 9/11. Now, the drugs are remaining in border cities (i.e. Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, Matamoros) on a scale never previously seen. As a result narcomenudeo (street drug pushing) is now common in Mexico City, Guadalajara, Hermosillo, Monterrey, and other large cities. The use of drugs by kidnappers is believed to be behind the increasingly violent kidnappings.

Another important factor in this problem is the lack of control of firearms, most of these coming into Mexico illegally from the United States. The combination of drugs and firearms make the kidnapping problem particularly volatile. If we add to this unemployment, economic problems, rivalries among drug cartels and corruption, it becomes apparent that Mexico has a public safety problem growing at an alarming rate.

By Mario Gonzalez-Roman, a retired Foreign Service National Security Advisor to the United States Embassy, currently a private Security Consultant, columnist at www.securitycornermexico.com

Kidnapping in Mexico

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico - A drug gang kidnapped and killed six people near a town in the U.S.-Mexican border region, prompting a series of gunbattles with soldiers that left 15 others dead.

The violence on Tuesday started when gunmen kidnapped nine alleged members of a rival drug gang in Villa Ahumada and later executed six of them along the PanAmerican highway outside of the town, 80 miles south of Ciudad Juarez, across the border from El Paso, Texas, said Enrique Torres, spokesman for a joint military-police operation in Chihuahua state.

Assailants later released three of the men, although their whereabouts was not immediately known, Torres said.

Soldiers later caught up with the gunmen and a series of shootouts ensued, leaving 14 alleged gunmen and one soldier dead Tuesday, Torres said. Another soldier was wounded.

Mexico has been besieged by drug violence amid a two-year government crackdown. President Felipe Calderon said Monday that more than 6,000 people have died in drug-related violence.

Villa Ahumada, a town of 1,500 people, was virtually taken over by drug gangs last year when gangs killed two consecutive police chiefs, and two officers. The rest of the 20-member force resigned in fear, forcing the Mexican military to take over for months until the town was able to recruit new officers.

The town's mayor, Fidel Chavez, fled to the state capital for his own safety.

Fires and decapitations
Also Tuesday, Tijuana city police said emergency officials responding to a report of a car on fire found a sport utility vehicle engulfed in flames and two charred bodies inside.

And in Tepotzotlan, a small town outside Mexico City, two heads in coolers were found inside a car, according to an official with the Mexico state prosecutor's office, who was not authorized to give her name. The heads were accompanied by a message threatening the municipal police chief. Decapitations have become commonplace in Mexico's drug violence.